The outlook at the time of the tabling of the 2020/2021 budget in February was largely positive.
The planning institute of Jamaica projected growth in the range of zero point five and one point 5 percent for the fiscal year.
The main drivers of growth were expected to be hotels and restaurants, agriculture, and the construction industry.
What was not planned nor could have been predicted was the impact of a global pandemic?
By the closing of the budget debate in March, it was clear that the country was already in unchartered waters.
The Holness administration announced a 25 billion dollar stimulus package to cushion the impact of the outbreak.
Of this 10 billion was to assist affected employers, employees, and others through direct cash grants
Players in the tourism industry, persons who had lost their jobs as a result of COVID-19, small businesses, and the most vulnerable were among those set to benefit.
With the 2020/2021 budget all but useless…Dark clouds on the horizon….the forecast became dim.
From predictions by the Bank of Jamaica, (BOJ) of a three percent economic contraction to the IMF on the other end predicting as much as 5 point 6 percent, it was clear that plans for growth must now shift to plans for recovery.
The adage that the private sector is the engine of growth now takes on the new currency.
Keith Duncan is the president of the Private Sector Organization of Jamaica (PSOJ).
He reflects on the role of the private sector during the first stage of the crisis.
For Mr. Keith Duncan now is a good opportunity for other sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics to take another look at the space and find areas of competitive advantage.
Again the spotlight is on the labour force where there continues to be a concern about productivity.
The latest published figures from the Jamaica productivity centre show that between 1976 and 2017 average labour productivity growth was negative zero point 61 per cent annually.
Financial analyst Dennis Chung says it is a matter that must be tackled- again.
By April Tourism Minister Ed Bartlett was reporting that 120 thousand workers in the sector had lost their jobs as a result of the virus outbreak.
We inquired whether their labour could be absorbed in either the agriculture or manufacturing sector.
Also looking ahead is Richard Pandohie President, Jamaica Manufacturer’s And Exporters Association as he shares what he believes is needed in order to drive manufacturing.
Img Src: micaf.gov.jm
